28 February, 2025

The Climate Change Committee (CCC) published its Seventh Carbon Budget (CB7) on Wednesday – here’s a run-down of some key points from its 390+ pages. Shout-out to our co-lead Prof Tim Benton who contributed to the report, and to our co-lead, Prof Neil Ward, who helped me summarise the main points below on food, farming and land.

Main docs on food, farming, land

• Seventh Carbon Budget (CCC) (section 7.4, p186)
• Greenhouse gas abatement in UK agriculture 2024-2050 (SRUC)
• The Agriculture Advisory Group report 
• The Food and Trade Advisory Group report

What the Seventh Carbon Budget is

Every five years or so the CCC publishes a statutory report detailing the UK’s ‘carbon budget’ for a future five-year period. The 7th Carbon Budget covers the period 2038-2042. It is a stock-take of UK emissions (current and future) and advice to the Government on how and where these emissions will need to be reduced (‘the pathway’) if the UK is to meet its legal obligations to reduce emissions to net zero by 2050.

General report headlines across UK economy

• UK emissions in 2023 were about half of 1990, due to reductions mainly in energy. BUT, by 2042 emissions will need to reduce to about a quarter of today’s levels. This is “ambitious but deliverable, provided action is taken rapidly”.
• Since 1990, there have been limited or no reductions from certain sectors: surface transport, aviation, agriculture, land use, and F-gases.
• 60% of emissions reductions by 2040 will come from electrification and low-carbon electricity supply.
• Upfront investment in net zero will lead to net savings for the UK and increase economic security against fossil fuel price shocks (the cause of half of UK recessions since the 1970s).
• Some sectors, including oil and gas and some parts of farming, will see “significant change” and government will need to “engage with affected communities to develop proactive, funded plans to support those affected.”

Food, farming, land headlines

• Farmers and land managers “must be sufficiently empowered [and supported] to deliver the transition” as they will play a crucial role. Policy must also protect against agricultural imports replacing emissions mitigated by UK farmers.
• Agriculture is currently the 4th biggest GHG emitting sector in the UK, but by 2040 it will be the second-highest emitting, due to other sectors such as energy having reduced emissions faster. Agricultural emissions have declined very little in the last decade (they fell between 1990 and 2008), and will need to drop much more up to 2042, followed by a steeper decline after 2042.
• Substantial reductions in agricultural emissions can come from adopting low-carbon farming practices and technologies, including livestock measures (e.g. feed, genetics, covering slurry) and decarbonising farm  machinery.
• But reaching net zero across the agriculture and land use sectors requires a reduction in livestock numbers (which account for 63% of UK agricultural emissions). The CCC concludes that a reduction in cattle and sheep numbers will be essential to the UK reaching net zero (alongside other sectors reducing emissions too).
• This can be achieved by supporting farmers to diversify their income streams while still producing food, and by a reduction in UK meat and dairy consumption. Effective government policy and clear incentives, both public and private, will be required to deliver this change.

Food, farming, land – how it gets to net zero by 2050 

• A combination of reducing emissions fast (fewer livestock, plus low-carbon farming practices), coupled with rapid tree and hedge-planting ASAP, reduces emissions while increasing sequestration so that by 2050 nature-based sequestration offsets the residual emissions from agriculture and land use.
• Farmers employ low-carbon practices and technologies, accounting for 35% of emissions reduction: 14% from managing soils and livestock differently (e.g. feed additives, breeding, and better management of slurry, nitrogen fixing crops, etc) and 21% from decarbonising machinery.
• Cattle and sheep numbers fall by 27%, a similar reduction to between 1990 and 2010 largely due to CAP reform. This accounts for 32% of emissions reduction and 68% of the land that is released (note; not to be confused with the overall % of land released).
• This change in livestock happens through a combination of measures: a) policy to encourage farmers to diversify their incomes, b) the continuing trend for lower meat and dairy consumption currently underway, and c) incentives to accelerate innovation in alternative protein products, particularly for processed products such as ready meals.
• Land is released for nature and tree planting through a combination of measures: Other than reducing livestock numbers, food waste falls by 45% by 2040; livestock stocking density rates on lowland grasslands increases by 20% by 2050 while lowers on uplands; crop yields improve; and 10% of horticulture production shifts indoors by 2050. All of these add up to 12% of the land that is released.
• For the average person, this means meat consumption declines by 25% by 2040 and 35% by 2050 compared to 2019 levels. Average dairy consumption reduces by 20% by 2035 but is maintained to 2040 and 2050. (The Guardian has worked this out as the equivalent of two kebabs’ worth of meat a week, for the average person).
• More than 16% of the UK is covered in woodland by 2040, an increase from 13% today. Tree planting rates will need to more than double to 37,000 hectares per year, by 2030.
• The proportion of UK peatlands in natural or rewetted conditions rises from 26% in 2023 to 55% in 2040. This delivers over half the land-use emissions reductions by 2040.

More detail on diet change 

• There’s been a relatively steady decline since 2010 in the consumption of red meat which accelerated between 2020 and 2022. The CCC assumes a steeper reduction in red meat than white meat for CB7. Policy interventions will be required to achieve reductions beyond long-term trends.
• Providing information about the GHG footprint of foods is an important prerequisite to diet change. It also assumes a reduction in the proportion of meat in ready meals, due to innovation in plant-based proteins.
• The CCC does not expect that its suggestions will disproportionately affect low-income groups: Plant-based foods are already cheaper than meat and dairy and alternative proteins are expected to become cheaper over time. So, over the transition to 2050, UK households should see a small saving in spending on food, other things being equal.
• The CCC recommendations would reduce the UK’s GHG global food footprint through reduced animal numbers and hence reduce the need for imported animal feed. It anticipates a general reduction across meat sectors and not a substitution of one kind of meat for another.
• Exports of ruminant meat and dairy are not expected to grow, since the UK exports these principally to the EU, which is also expected to reduce its consumption. The pathway to net zero assumes the UK self-sufficiency ratio for ruminant meat and dairy stays broadly the same.

What citizens think about food and climate

The CCC convened a Citizens’ Panel to capture the views of an informed public. There were seven key findings:

1. There is a general acceptance among citizens of the need for change.
2. The public wants to understand the emissions impact of food better.
3. People want to shift towards healthier home-cooked food options.
4. The price of plant-based alternatives needs to reduce.
5. There needs to be more variety in diets.
6. There is support for reduced meat in ready meals.
7. There is concern about the impact on UK farmers.

For more detail on any of the above, go to page 186 of the report. 

Analysis from Prof Neil Ward

CB7 is broadly similar in its direction of travel to CB6, which was published in December 2020. One key difference, though, is that emissions from agriculture are now expected to be equivalent to the sequestration from land-use changes (such as afforestation and hedgerow planting) by 2050. Previously, there was no mention of these being equivalent, and it was possible that land-use change was needed to net off aviation etc too.

There has been more explicit consideration of red meat and white meat, although consumption of both is recommended to be brought down by similar amounts. The inclusion of figures on expected changes in numbers of cattle and sheep provides a helpful focus for policymakers and NGOs to consider.

It is also useful to understand that the expected reduction in net emissions from reduced animal numbers is more than twice that anticipated from the adoption of low carbon farming practices. This puts the animal question into vivid perspective.

Some reaction online

• Our Policy Champion for Land, Agriculture and Carbon, Emily Norton, has written some analysis
• Neil has written a piece in The Conversation
• The Guardian writes about eating two kebabs-worth of meat less a week
• Carbon Brief writes about how net zero could cut energy bills
• There is searing reaction from the Tenant Farmers Association
• And good comment and a webinar planned from the Food Foundation