What is the Roadmap?

The AFN Network+ Roadmap outlines our strategy to help the UK agri-food system transform for net zero by 2050. The Roadmap has three functions:

• A framework to analyse potential pathways to net zero.
• A process for engaging stakeholders in co-developing these pathways. 
• A set of actionable recommendations for research, policy, and practice.

The Roadmap is distinctive in how it approaches the challenge of transformation. Rather than simply extrapolating from current trends, it uses carefully constructed future scenarios and an expert Future Food Calculator to help stakeholders explore different possible pathways to net zero. This approach allows us to identify interventions that add up to reach net zero without making the UK less self-sufficient, and which could work across multiple possible futures.

Central to the Roadmap’s development is its emphasis on opening up new ways of thinking about the agri-food system’s transformation. The Roadmap aims to move beyond current deadlocks in the debate. It does this by bringing together diverse stakeholders and using innovative tools for analysis and engagement. The goal is to identify practical steps that can be taken now to enable changes in the coming decades. 

How is it being developed?

The AFN Network+ is taking a collaborative approach to developing the Roadmap. We are drawing on expertise from across our Network and partner organisations. 

The Roadmap work includes several interconnected activities that are designed to work together, build on each other, and create multiple opportunities for Network members to contribute their expertise and insights. As we progress through each stage, we’re learning and adapting our approach based on feedback from Network members and new insights from our research.

More about the Future Food Calculator and the 2050 Scenarios

Two main analytical tools are helping us to explore and evaluate potential pathways to net zero. They are the AFN Network+ 2050 Scenarios and the Future Food Calculator. These tools work together to help us think systematically about complex changes while remaining grounded in the data.

The 2050 Scenarios

The scenarios we produced in 2023 are a tool to help us broaden thinking beyond business-as-usual assumptions about how the world will be in 2050. While all scenarios achieve net zero by 2050, they do so through different pathways shaped by varying global conditions, technological developments, and societal values. By considering multiple scenarios we can develop a set of common interventions that help build resilience in the system that is robust across different possible futures.

The Future Food Calculator

The Future Food Calculator includes data on emissions, land use and food consumption and helps us understand the impacts of different choices and trade-offs as well as interdependencies. It helps us to get a sense of whether particular changes (i.e. changing the position of the sliders in the Calculator) move us closer to, or further away from, reaching net zero. It also can give an indication of the implications for UK food self-sufficiency and the pattern of land use. While the Calculator necessarily simplifies complex relationships, it serves several important functions: 

• Highlights the size of emissions reductions from different interventions
• Reveals interconnections between different parts of the system
• Helps ensure discussions about co-benefits (such as biodiversity and public health) remain anchored in emissions reduction potential
• Provides a common reference point for discussions about trade-offs and priorities

The Calculator was developed by AFN Network+ Co-lead Sarah Bridle and Juan Pablo Cordero at the University of York, in collaboration with experts across the food system. It is part of the FixOurFood project under the Transforming UK Food Systems Programme.

Using the tools together

By combining scenario thinking with quantitative modelling we can: 

• Test how different interventions might perform across multiple potential futures
• Identify potential synergies and conflicts between different objectives
• Ground creative thinking about the future in practical constraints and opportunities
• Support evidence-based discussions about priorities and trade-offs

These tools have helped to stretch our thinking beyond business-as-usual and identify the appropriate interventions included in the Roadmap. 

Roadmap process and timeline

Our work on the Roadmap is now entering a critical phase of stakeholder engagement and refinement during spring 2025. Here’s our draft timeline of key activities through to completion:

October 2024          

Refining the Future Food Calculator tool; developing numerical values to represent each of the AFN Network+ 2050 scenarios

December 2024      

Review pathways/roadmaps from other organisations 

January 2025           

Workshop to critically examine the Future Food Calculator with experts from academia and across the UK agri-food system

February 2025         

Development of the Roadmap

March 2025             

Big Tent AGM – Roadmap work and Future Food Calculator introduced to delegates.

April – May 2025     

Final development of the Roadmap.

May – Sept 2025   

Engagement with key stakeholder organisations to discuss and refine  insights and finalise the Roadmap

October 2025                   

Publish the Roadmap and final policy event